Indiana — What to look for tomorrow night

Since my state is, along with Kentucky, the first to close its polls, we will most likely garner more attention than most places early on.  Here’s my take on what to look for (and a word of caution not to flip out!!).

Eight of the nine Congressional races will probably be called early on for the incumbents (we have no open seats this time).  The one exception is Mark Souder’s seat in IN-03 — Fort Wayne and the NE corner of the state.  Not only has Mike Montagano been roaring to a close there, this is exactly the type of Republican district that Obama is not going to win, but will do significantly better than John Kerry did four years ago.  Right now, this race is a true tossup.

Also expect Mitch Daniels’ re-election as governor to be called early.  Don’t worry about this, my brother and sister Democrats — JLT has run a beyond-awful campaign (the less said about it the better!), that I don’t think it can be used as any indicator of broader trends — unless she does better than expected, and that would be a really good indication for us.

Finally, as the raw totals from Indiana come in, expect McCain to have an early lead, perhaps a significant one.  Typically, the first votes to come in are disproportionately from the Indianapolis suburbs, which are the most conservative part of the state.  If Obama can be in the high 30s in the coutnties that surround Indianapolis (Hancock, Johnson, Hendricks, and especially Hamilton), he’ll carry Indiana.  Probably all over the state, and especially in central-city Indianapolis, voters are going to be casting their ballots long after 6pm tomorrow night, and the heavily minority and white liberal areas of Indy always report late in any election.

Finally, Lake County (“The Region” in local slang — Gary/Hammond and area), which will return HUGE, HUGE numbers for Obama is in the Central Time Zone, and will be probably the last in the state to report.

So, the longer Indiana goes uncalled and the closer the numbers look early on, the better for us.  Either Obama or McCain is probably going to win this state 50-48 or closer — so even though our polls close first, we might be one of the last states in the country to be called.